Reviewed by Norrie Sanders
China and Russia are two countries with very different trajectories. The former is a resurgent superpower, an economic miracle in just 40 years. By contrast, the once mighty Russian empire is now labelled a “regional power” and can only dream of reclaiming its “lost” territories. As a long time China watcher, Geoff Raby sees the two countries as frenemies, with China being ascendant everywhere other than in Vladimir Putin’s mind.
The title is a reference to the jockeying over central Asia between two great powers of the 19th century – Great Britain and Russia. The Czarist empire began a campaign of colonisation in the 18th century and after military campaigns in the mid-19th century, held sway for the next 150 years. The British in India feared a northern invasion of their own empire, and began a cold war that escalated into proxy conflicts in Persia and Afghanistan.
In Raby’s eyes, the current Great Game is a two-way contest, since the US defeat and ignominious withdrawal in Afghanistan has left the field to the Russians and Chinese. The geography of this game is different, pivoting on the central Asian “Stans” and potentially the Manchurian territories of east Asia. But the motivations are not dissimilar in terms of protecting or accessing resources and redressing perceived entitlements. “Game” is apt because the two countries pretend to be equal partners bonded by mutual interests. In truth, China is dominant and determined to erode the interests of its competitors, primarily Russia, as it extends its physical and financial might across central Asia.
It is fair to say that the author’s view of China is more nuanced than, say, Donald Trump’s. Raby doesn’t excuse China, but views the leadership as less driven by territorial expansion and more by enhancing its long-term economic growth. Trade and infrastructure agreements, such as railways and gas, have been weaker on allegiance and stronger on expedience. He sees China as being much more likely to succeed in restoring influence than Russia.
Raby is careful not to make rash predictions, but one reading is that the West has more cause for optimism than Russia. He suggests that Western fears of an alliance that will challenge world order, which he calls “Chussia anxiety”, reflect a weak understanding of China’s position:
“When viewed from these perspectives.. Chussia can be seen to have feet of clay. The reality is more a western-created phantom than a geostrategic phenomenon” [p8].
The book moves smoothly from history to current geo-politics, liberally sprinkled with Raby’s own travels and experiences as long time Asian traveller and one-time Australian ambassador. Included are regional maps which are generally informative, though omitting some of the key locations mentioned in the text.
It is an enlightening and exacting read, helped by thoughtful writing and editing. The topic is complex and needs to be tackled from different geographic and historic perspectives, which is aided by some (well-curated) repetition. The text also contains some less demanding interludes, recalling relevant travel and other anecdotes from Geoff Raby’s experience. This is a book that proves, yet again, that we still need books to understand the world.
Geoff Raby was Australia’s ambassador to China (2007–11); ambassador to APEC (2003–05); and ambassador to the World Trade Organization (1998–2001). Since leaving government service he has been a regular columnist on China and Eurasia for The Australian Financial Review, travel writer and a non-executive, independent company director. His last book was China’s Grand Strategy (MUP, 2020). Raby was awarded the Order of Australia in 2019 for services to Australia–China relations and international trade.
Great Game On: The Contest for Central Asia and Global Supremacy
(November 2024)
by Geoff Raby
MUP
ISBN: 978 052287 966 7
$34.99 (Paperback); 240pp